Week 9 Rankings - Biases Being Exposed

After looking at the week 9 rankings, which to me should be listed as week 8 since it reflects the results for week 8 not week 9, I noticed a couple things.  The schedule for this weekend's games is listed as week 9 schedules.  It's very confusing so I'll let it go.  Back to my point, I think this week's rankings shows the biases the voters have.  I know the AP and Coaches polls do not count towards who makes the playoffs, but I think they do play a small part.  The reason being is that very first playoff committee ranking is clearly being influenced by the current ranking of the teams in the AP and Coaches polls.  That first poll is so similar to the original two polls, I think the committee probably uses these polls as a starting point as they evaluate each team.  There's no way they can completely ignore it.  After the first poll, then both the AP and Coaches polls fall in line with the playoff committee poll and making their polls irrelevant.

Back to my original point and the title of this post, in this week's polls the SEC bias and blue blood bias is clearly in view.  If you look at the breakdown of the AP Top 10 this week, there are 4 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 2 B1G teams, 1 Big 12 team and 1 AAC team.  Let's look at the B1G first.  Ohio State moved up 2 spots and Wisconsin moved up 5 spots for their first and only win so far.  Now, Wisconsin will drop since they have shut down football operations due to losing a bunch of players to COVID, including most of their QB group so who knows how they'll do going forward.  I know Ohio State is really good, but it is only 1 game and it's not like they totally dominated Nebraska.

Next, my favorite bias we see every year is of course, drum roll...…..the SEC.  Take a look at records for all the AP Top 10 teams.  All are undefeated, as well as they should be being ranked that high, except for 3 teams.  You guessed it, all 3 teams are in the SEC, #5 Georgia, #8 Texas A&M and #10 Florida.  First off, both UGA and A&M lost to #2 Bama so that's understandable and both games were in Tuscaloosa.  However, A&M lost by 4 TDs and the game was not that close.  The UGA-Bama game was more competitive, but the Crimson Tide pulled away in the 2nd half to win by 17 points.  After this loss, UGA only dropped 1 spot, which is wrong.  Again the SEC bias showing.  If another team, outside the SEC elite teams played that game with that result, they would drop at least 5 spots.  The reason they only dropped 1 spot is so that if both Bama and UGA win out, they'll meet in the SEC title game and it gives the SEC a better chance to get 2 teams in the playoffs.

The blue blood bias this week goes to Oklahoma.  How the hell can a 3-2 team get put back into the rankings this week.  If they continue to win and have a 5-2 record, then fine put them back in the polls, not at 3-2.  There is also another 3-2 team in the AP Top 25, Iowa State, but they were previously ranked #17 so they dropped 6 spots to #23 so I don't have as much a problem as moving Oklahoma back into the polls.

One of the most underrated teams this year so far is BYU.  They were not ranked in the preseason and they debuted in the first weekly poll, oddly called "week 3", at #21 after they went back to Navy and absolutely dominated them on both sides of the field.  The next week they did move up 3 spots to #18 and they didn't even play, which is strange.  Especially, because the following week, they won big again, but dropped 4 spots to #22.  I had a hard time understanding how a team that again won huge and was 2-0 could drop that many spaces until I looked more closely at the teams in the poll.  This week, week 5, the polls added 4 teams from the B1G (#6 Ohio State, #10 Penn State, #19 Wisconsin and #23 Michigan).  The polls also added 1 team from the PAC-12 (#14 Oregon).  The B1G was still FOUR weeks away from playing their 1st game and the PAC-12 was SIX weeks away.  No teams from any of these conferences should not be ranked until maybe the week before they actually start playing.  BYU was wrongly dropped to allow 3 B1G teams to be ranked ahead of them.  Not sure why they dropped another spot, but it is probably due to their weak schedule, which is totally out of their control.  Below is BYU's original 2020 football schedule and their current schedule:

09/03 - at Utah  09/07 - at Navy  W 55-3

09/12 - Michigan State  OFF

09/19 - at Arizona State  at Army (Postponed)

09/26 - at Minnesota  Troy  W 48-7

10/02 - Utah State  Louisiana Tech  W 45-14

10/10 - Missouri  UTSA  W 27-20

10/16 - at Houston (Originally BYU home game)  W 43-26

10/24 - at Northern Illinois  Texas State  W 52-14

10/31 - OFF  Western Kentucky

11/06 - at Boise State

11/14 - San Diego State  OFF

11/21 - North Alabama

11/28 - at Stanford  OFF

12/05 - OFF

12/12 - San Diego State 

This scheduled included 3 PAC-12 teams (Utah, at Arizona St and at Stanford), 2 B1G teams (Michigan St and at Minnesota) and 1 SEC team (Missouri), along with 3 MWC teams (Utah St, at Boise St and San Diego St.  Both Boise St and San Diego St were rescheduled) and a decent Houston team.  This is a very strong and competitive schedule and if they had the same record they have now (6-0), they should be in the Top 10.  As you can see, they have been blowing out their opponents, with the exception of UTSA and the Houston road game (BYU scored a couple times late due to Houston turnovers).  Bottom line is BYU is really good and if they go undefeated, that would include a win at Boise St, which is not easy.  They should be considered for a playoff spot, but to be honest, the best they probably could do would be a New Year's 6 bowl game.

  

Week 9 Preview

 This upcoming weekend only has one ranked versus ranked matchup and that is #3 Ohio State versus #18 Penn State.  Since Penn State lost last week on a controversial, but I think correct call, this is a must win if they want to have a chance to win the B1G conference and hope for a playoff spot.  If there was no pandemic and it was a full house in Happy Valley all dressed in white and loud as hell, then I think Penn State could have the possibility of pulling off the upset.  Unfortunately, there will not be any crowd noise since no fans will be allowed in the stadium so the home field advantage is pretty much gone.

As for the rest of the schedule, there are a few games I will be interested in watching and could be good games.  In the early games, #16 Kansas State at West Virginia could be a tough game for the Wildcats.  The Mountaineers are always tough at home.  Unlike the B1G, the Big 12 does allow some fans in the stadiums so the home field will be somewhat of an advantage.

Another good game in the early round is Memphis at #7 Cincinnati.  Cincinnati has proven over the last few years that they are a solid team even though they play in the AAC.  In fact, the AAC has been very competitive the last few years.  I think the ranking might be a little high, but it's based on their recent success, plus Luke Fickell coming from Ohio State helps too to get higher rankings.

In the afternoon games, unfortunately LSU at Auburn does not look as sexy as normal since both have struggled this year and both are currently unranked. I think the best game in this afternoon set is Texas at #6 Oklahoma State.  This is a HUGE game for the Big 12.  The reason I say that is that OSU is the only remaining undefeated team in the conference.  If they lose to Texas, especially at home, it will be very difficult for any Big 12 team to make the playoffs this year.  If OSU loses to Texas in a very good, tightly-contested game and lose by only a couple points in regulation or OT and win convincingly in the Big 12 title game, they could get into the playoffs.

In the evening games, obviously the big one is #3 Ohio State at #18 Penn State.  We already talked about this game so other interesting games are Arkansas at #8 Texas A&M and Missouri at #10 Florida.  Arkansas is playing very well so the Aggies need to be careful.  I think this game will help to see how good A&M really is and if they deserve the #8 ranking.  The Mizzou at Florida game I find interesting since Florida has not played for a few weeks due to COVID so I'm curious to see how they perform.  A couple ranked teams are on the road and need to be careful to avoid the upset.  This would be #15 North Carolina at Virginia and #24 Oklahoma at Texas Tech.  Another loss and the Sooners are done.  The fact they are ranked with a 3-2 record is ridiculous.  There are also some other rankings I find questionable, but I think I'll do another post about that subject.

Even though there is only one ranked versus ranked this week, I think there are many interesting games and should be a very enjoyable weekend to watch football.

Week 8 FBS Schedule (Including TV Channels)

 I have posted the week 8 FBS schedule as of today including the day, time and TV channel where the game can be seen.  The schedule can be found on the '2020 FBS Schedules' page.  With weekly postponements and cancellations due to COVID-19, I will update the page as schedules change.  Since the first game this week is Thursday, October 22nd, I'll update the page on Wednesday (if needed).

Original Polls - To Do Them in 2020 or Not?

 Since the playoffs started, I have not been publishing my original polls based on my format I came up with years ago.  For those new to this blog, in one of the first blog posts I lay out how my poll is generated so you can read all about it if you like.  I have been debating on whether or not to do one this year since there will be an uneven schedule and so my poll would not work.  I am thinking I may do it at the end of the year and use an average per game based on the total number of games played and use that average to fill in the missing games not played and then see how it turns out.  If I can think of a better way to do it, then I'll do that.  Anyway, if I do decide to post them, I'll let you know.

Expanding CFB Playoffs in 2020

 There have been many people, since the beginning of the playoff era, trying to get the playoffs to expand from four teams to six, eight or even more.  From the beginning, I always thought eight would be the perfect number so all Power 5 conference champions get an automatic bid and then three at-large bids. One of the at-large bids going to the best Group of 5 team and the remaining two to the best non-champion teams that didn’t win their conference. This will allow BYU to have a chance as an independent to get in, unlike Notre Dame who counts as their own conference basically since they always get special treatment unfairly.  This year especially since BYU looks pretty good and they have a great quarterback, Zach Wilson, who is barely getting any mention nationally and rightfully deserves to be in the heisman talk.

With the craziness of the 2020 season due to COVID-19, this year would be the perfect time experimenting to expand the playoffs since no one knows how many games each team will even be able to play. The PAC-12 champion is only guaranteed to play 7 games at most barring any cancellations. The B1G champion is guaranteed to play 9 games if there are no cancellations.  The other three Power 5 conferences can play a maximum of 10 or 11 games if they are lucky. Since there will be an imbalance of the number of games played along with conference-only games, the playoff committee will have to rely on the “eye test” more so this year than any other. 

We have seen a number of games being postponed or cancelled due to COVID outbreaks. Poor Houston finally was able to play their first game this past Thursday due to circumstances out of their control. I was glad to see the feckless commissioner of the PAC-12 Larry Scott finally speak up and push to expand the playoffs. He was shot down by the leaders of the playoff committee of course, but I’m glad he at least tried. I wish he got more support from the other commissioners of the Power 5 conferences to put pressure on the playoff committee to change their minds. Hopefully, that could still happen once the B1G and PAC-12 start playing. 

COVID-19 and 2020 College Football Season

 With a few weeks of games under our belts, I'm glad to say that we have college football this season.  I was afraid that with the pandemic that it would be impossible to play games this year.  I'm just glad the ACC, Big 12 and SEC decided to go ahead and play football.  I strongly believe this decision to play, along with the NFL being successful in starting their season with little to no issues, this forced the B1G and PAC-12 to seriously re-consider their decision to postpone all fall sports until 2021.  I also think the PAC-12's agreement with Quidel to provide daily testing was the final piece needed.  I'm glad all Power 5 conferences and all Group of 5 conferences in FBS will now be playing football this season.  It will be interesting to see how many games each of the main contenders in all conferences can get in this year and how the playoff committee is going to make their selections.  This year, more so than any other year in the entire short run of the playoffs so far, the playoff committee is going to have to be more subjective and look more at how teams perform on the field as compared to schedule strength, since everyone is playing a conference-only, reduced schedule this year.  I'm sure they will also include common opponents, but the "eye test" is going to be more critical this year.  I sure hope all committee members do their due diligence and watch all games and teams so they can appropriately measure each team.  I guarantee that all teams being considered for the playoffs will not have played the same number of games.  For example, Alabama, Ohio St and Oregon/USC.  If all these teams play the total number of games scheduled, Alabama will have played 10, Ohio St 9 and Oregon/USC 7.  Can an undefeated PAC-12 team (7-0) make it to the playoffs?  Should they be considered?  This is where the subjectivity comes in to play.  I think we'll get our answer when we see the first playoff committee poll on November 17, 2020.

College Football 2016 is Almost Here!

I dropped the ball last year and did not finish my rankings.  In fact, I only got to week 2.  Things got super busy for work and as mentioned in previous posts, I had to travel more and so I was not able to update my rankings every week.  My goal is to finish out last season before the new season starts and also to keep up to date with the 2016 season.  I have extra motivation this year since my favorite team USC has a monster game in the 1st week against the reigning national champion Alabama at Jerry's World (AT&T Stadium) in Dallas, TX.

Since I'm a season ticket holder, I was able to get tickets and I just finalized my flight and hotel so I'm starting to get really excited about the new season.  I got notified by FedEx that my tickets for the game should arrive on Tuesday (I'll post a pic of them when I get them).  On another note, I also got my season tickets for the upcoming season so another reason to get excited.