Wow, can't believe it's here, FINALLY!! Can't take too much more of having baseball as the only live sports to watch (sorry NFL fans). Two great games tonight the other SC, South Carolina at Vanderbilt followed by Mike Leach's team playing his alma mater, Washington State at BYU.
In the 1st game, I'm looking forward to seeing how healthy Lattimore is and also if Vandy can pull off the upset. I'd love to see the upset, but I think too much Lattimore in this one and the gamecocks prevail in a close game, especially if the weather is bad. My prediction So Carolina over Vandy 24-20.
In the 2nd game, I think it will be like an old BYU WAC game, tons of offense and little defense. Although BYU has a decent defense. I still think there will be a lot of points scored. Both teams have good QBs and I'm really excited to see WSU's WR Marquess Wilson. Heard great things about him, but haven't seen him play yet (USC hasn't played WSU in like 3 yrs and won't again this year). My prediction BYU over WSU 45-42.
A new college football poll for the avid fan
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Monday, August 27, 2012
3 days and counting....
I can't believe game week is already here. I'm anxiously awaiting to actually see some football on Thursday instead of talking about the Penn St scandal, players being dismissed from their teams, NC academic fraud, etc. We've got a great double header on the 1st night with South Carolina at Vandy followed up with Wazzu at BYU. Should be a great night or at least entertaining night to start off the season. Friday night has Boise St at Michigan St. Of course the big game everyone is talking about on Saturday is Michigan vs Alabama at Jerry's World in Dallas. I hope it's a good game and not a blowout. We close out Labor Day Monday with Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, which could decide the Coastal Division in the ACC. There are some interesting games on Saturday like Navy & Notre Dame playing in Dublin. Being on the West Coast, that game is a 6am start, but I'll be up watching it since I usually get up early to watch ESPN Gameday anyway. All in all, Thursday can't come quick enough!
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Introduction
As a passionate college football fan, I'm tired of the inconsistencies, biases and so forth that go into finding the best two college football teams to play for the BCS National Title (for two more years anyway). I decided to develop my own football ranking system to eliminate the biases and most of the inconsistencies.
Some of these inconsistencies include the following: number of home games, playing FCS teams, margin of victory and strength of conference. Strength of conference is out of the control for teams since they have no control over that. We all know it goes in cycles the strength of a conference. For the last decade, the SEC hands down has been the toughest conference. The fact they have won six straight BCS titles and a great chance to keep that streak going is evidence. However, some of the other power conferences are starting to get better and close the gap some. We'll have to see if that gaps get any closer by some other conference winning the BCS title this year. The other three, teams and conferences have total control over. The first being teams not playing the same number of home & away games since the NCAA added the 12th game for all FBS teams (13 games for those teams playing at Hawaii for that season). Another one is teams playing FCS teams for non-conference games (no offense to FCS schools and their teams). The last being margin of victory, which was wrongfully removed from the BCS formula. In my system I add it back in but cap it at 20 so teams don't get more points for running up the score. For example, when USC beat UCLA 50-0, they would only get 20 points and not 50.
I came up with a system that will reward teams for their performance on the field, like it should. I've also added bonus points for playing ranked opponents as well as deductions for playing FCS teams (again no offense to FCS schools & teams). I also reward (or deduct) points based on wins or losses and also where the game is played. For example, if a team wins at home, they will get the minimum number of points since they're expected to win at home. If a team wins on a neutral field, they'll get the middle level of points and if a team wins on the road, they get the maximum number of points. The reverse goes for losses. If a team loses at home, they get the maximum number of points deducted, neutral field the middle level and losses on the road the minimum number of points.
I decided to try my system out for last year results to see how my final rankings before the bowl games compared to both the BCS and AP polls (I think the Coaches & Harris polls are useless so I'm not using them). I especially wanted to do it to see if after all the controversy from LSU & Alabama playing for the title if my poll would have the same results. I did two different scenarios with one using the AP Top 25 preseason poll (also including the others receiving votes) and the other I used everyone starting at an equal level with zero points. The only problem is that teams playing that last week in the conference championships get an extra game and so they get more points. This is why Oregon is number three in my polls. I haven't figured out a way to fix that yet, but maybe during the season I can come up with a way to fix it. If anyone has any suggestions, let me know.
As you can see from my rankings below, it put LSU & Alabama in the title game under both scenarios. I'm curious to see how my system will work this year. Each week I will post my ranking system and compare it against the AP & BCS polls. You will notice my polls are very fluid and teams will change from week to week. Even if a team wins they could drop in the polls based on the quality of opponent and margin of victory. Also, if a team doesn't play that week, they could drop too because they didn't earn any points. It all evens out during the season since everyone has a bye at some point.
This blog is just for entertainment and I hope you enjoy looking at it each week as much as I have preparing it. Here are my top 10 rankings using both scenarios for 2011. As you'll notice they're identical with the exception of 9 and 10.
Some of these inconsistencies include the following: number of home games, playing FCS teams, margin of victory and strength of conference. Strength of conference is out of the control for teams since they have no control over that. We all know it goes in cycles the strength of a conference. For the last decade, the SEC hands down has been the toughest conference. The fact they have won six straight BCS titles and a great chance to keep that streak going is evidence. However, some of the other power conferences are starting to get better and close the gap some. We'll have to see if that gaps get any closer by some other conference winning the BCS title this year. The other three, teams and conferences have total control over. The first being teams not playing the same number of home & away games since the NCAA added the 12th game for all FBS teams (13 games for those teams playing at Hawaii for that season). Another one is teams playing FCS teams for non-conference games (no offense to FCS schools and their teams). The last being margin of victory, which was wrongfully removed from the BCS formula. In my system I add it back in but cap it at 20 so teams don't get more points for running up the score. For example, when USC beat UCLA 50-0, they would only get 20 points and not 50.
I came up with a system that will reward teams for their performance on the field, like it should. I've also added bonus points for playing ranked opponents as well as deductions for playing FCS teams (again no offense to FCS schools & teams). I also reward (or deduct) points based on wins or losses and also where the game is played. For example, if a team wins at home, they will get the minimum number of points since they're expected to win at home. If a team wins on a neutral field, they'll get the middle level of points and if a team wins on the road, they get the maximum number of points. The reverse goes for losses. If a team loses at home, they get the maximum number of points deducted, neutral field the middle level and losses on the road the minimum number of points.
I decided to try my system out for last year results to see how my final rankings before the bowl games compared to both the BCS and AP polls (I think the Coaches & Harris polls are useless so I'm not using them). I especially wanted to do it to see if after all the controversy from LSU & Alabama playing for the title if my poll would have the same results. I did two different scenarios with one using the AP Top 25 preseason poll (also including the others receiving votes) and the other I used everyone starting at an equal level with zero points. The only problem is that teams playing that last week in the conference championships get an extra game and so they get more points. This is why Oregon is number three in my polls. I haven't figured out a way to fix that yet, but maybe during the season I can come up with a way to fix it. If anyone has any suggestions, let me know.
As you can see from my rankings below, it put LSU & Alabama in the title game under both scenarios. I'm curious to see how my system will work this year. Each week I will post my ranking system and compare it against the AP & BCS polls. You will notice my polls are very fluid and teams will change from week to week. Even if a team wins they could drop in the polls based on the quality of opponent and margin of victory. Also, if a team doesn't play that week, they could drop too because they didn't earn any points. It all evens out during the season since everyone has a bye at some point.
This blog is just for entertainment and I hope you enjoy looking at it each week as much as I have preparing it. Here are my top 10 rankings using both scenarios for 2011. As you'll notice they're identical with the exception of 9 and 10.
Preseason Rankings
| ||||
Ranking
|
Institution
|
Points
|
BCS
|
AP
|
1
|
LSU
|
389
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Alabama
|
358
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Oregon
|
349
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
Boise St.
|
341
|
7
|
8
|
5
|
Oklahoma St.
|
338
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
Stanford
|
317
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
Wisconsin
|
310
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
Houston
|
274
|
19
|
20
|
9
|
Oklahoma
|
268
|
14
|
19
|
10
|
Southern Miss.
|
265
|
21
|
22
|
Equal (0 Points)
|
||||
Ranking
|
Institution
|
Points
|
BCS
|
AP
|
1
|
LSU
|
271
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Alabama
|
239
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
Oregon
|
231
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
Boise St.
|
226
|
7
|
8
|
5
|
Oklahoma St.
|
223
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
Stanford
|
202
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
Wisconsin
|
198
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
Houston
|
190
|
19
|
20
|
9
|
Southern Miss.
|
178
|
21
|
22
|
10
|
Michigan
|
177
|
13
|
13
|
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)